Overall, this triple crisis, which is likely to prevail as its generating factors will probably remain unaltered or worsen, has heralded a new era in the history of the Islamic Republic, marked by turmoil and potential instability. If the political crisis were solved, through meaningful reform of the governing system, the resolution of the other two crises-socio-economic and ecological-would be facilitated, while not guaranteed. The paper argues that, within the socio-economic, political, and ecological triple crisis, the political crisis constitutes the center of gravity. In conclusion, the paper addresses what the regime fears most and revisits the lessons to be learned from the 2009 Green Movement, before highlighting the need for intersectional alliances in Iran to produce real social transformation. Turning to structural factors, the second part lays out the Islamic Republic’s triple crisis-socio-economic, political, and ecological-which poses a veritable threat to regime security. The first part of the paper looks at the socio-economic and political causes of those nationwide protests, as reflected in their powerful anti-regime slogans, by focusing on their contingent drivers. In fact, over the past four decades, the Islamic Republic, with its theocratic and semi-republican system, has shown itself to be quite immune to meaningful reform, despite multiple pressures from below. This paper, which was written with a focus on the Dey Protests, aims to provide a useful contextualization of recent events and proposes to read the Iranian protests of the past two years within the context of what I call the Islamic Republic’s “triple crisis.” It argues that, given the ongoing nature of this crisis, the need for fundamental domestic change in Iran remains pressing. While the November or Âbân (referring to the Iranian calendar month) Protests were distinct from the Dey Protests in a number of ways, some analysts have proposed that both are part of an Iranian version of the “long-term revolutionary process” that has been underway throughout the Arab world since 2011.
These protests were, analytically speaking, a continuation of the nationwide protests that took place in 2017/18, known as the Dey Protests. In November 2019, new protests erupted across Iran, sparked by a surprise tripling of fuel prices.
0 kommentar(er)
